federalexpression

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Superbowl XLV: Green Bay Packers -2 early line over Pittsburgh Steelers

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Superbowl XLV Logo

Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

I was looking at the prior 44 super bowl lines. Teams favored by 4 points or less are 5-8 (.385). I also noticed that the NFC has a 5-8 (.385) record in those games. In all 13 cases the spread was either covered by the winner or the underdog won outright. Chances are excellent that the point spread on this game will be meaningless in the end.

Both of these teams average about 24 points per game and surrender approximately 15 points per game. I would expect Vegas to set total points around 40.  I don’t expect the running backs to dominate this game, so the MVP will most likely be from the defense or passing game. Both QBs tend to spread it around a bit. That gives the winning QB the edge for MVP honors.

If the game is as tight as the line suggests, perhaps the game will hinge on a defense or special teams play and steal the MVP award.

My heart is with the Pack but my head tells me Steelers get their 7th championship.

UPDATE: The line has moved to 2 1/2 points in favor of Green Bay and total points is 44 1/2. If I were a betting man I would take Pittsburgh and the under. I will be a Packers fan on game day. I think Mike Wallace is a sleeper MVP candidate assuming the Steelers can run the ball a little and open up the play-action pass.

Final:
Thankfully I am not a betting man, Green Bay and the over. Winning QB Aaron Rodgers as expected gets the MVP. Mike Wallace did get behind the GB defense in a losing cause. The line stood at 2 1/2 but some services were offering 3 points to the Steelers. Either way the line was a no factor. I think the uncharacteristic turnovers by the Steelers was the difference and accounts for the total scoring being above as well as a Packers win. I was pleased with the outcome as I was pulling for the Pack. The game was tight and the interception for touchdown was a huge factor.

Written by federalexpression

January 27, 2011 at 2:28 pm

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